Will El Nino Bring More Snow to Big Bear Lake in 2023?

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As the winter months approach, all eyes turn to the looming El Niño on Southern California, particularly the snow fall in Big Bear Lake. In this article, we delve into the intricate dynamics of El Niño, its historical effects on California—specifically Big Bear Lake—and what the crystal ball predicts for the upcoming season.

What is El Nino?

The question on everyone's mind is how this climate phenomenon might sway the snowfall prospects in Big Bear Lake. To understand, we first must learn about El Nino and how it effects snowfall in Big Bear Lake and Souther California. El Niño is a climatic phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean that refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This natural event has profound effects on California's weather patterns. Typically occurring every two to seven years, El Niño disrupts the normal atmospheric circulation, leading to a cascade of impacts. In California, El Niño is associated with a heightened likelihood of increased rainfall, as it intensifies the subtropical jet stream, bringing more moisture to the region. This enhanced precipitation can result in both positive and negative consequences, from much-needed relief for drought-stricken areas to the potential for flooding and landslides.

Southern California's Snow Ballet

Southern California, with its Mediterranean climate, is uniquely sensitive to the rhythmic dance orchestrated by El Niño. The warmer sea surface temperatures trigger atmospheric changes, ushering in shifts in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation—all of which contribute to the region's snowfall narrative.

Increase Chance of Snow in Big Bear Lake

Each year visitor, skiers, snowboarders and residents eagerly await the predicted snow fall for the season. Especially years that anticipate an El Nino and the potential impact on Big Bear Lake. There is a 75%–85% likelihood of El Niño in 2023, intensifying from November to January, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). That means Big Bear Lake can be in for a great ski season with plenty of snow fall this winter, but keep in mind that other factors will still play a role such as temperatures. At this point we do know that heavy snow fall and the chances of an El Nino are possible this year but we still do not know this for a fact as it is only a prediction. Given the changes, let's take a look at how Big Bear Lake was effected by El Nino in the past to see if the same can happen this year.

Historical Effects of El Niño in Big Bear Lake

The last significant El Niño event that had notable impacts on Big Bear Lake, occurred during the 2015-2016 winter season. Big Bear Lake experienced significant snowfall during the 2015-2016 winter season, with some storms bringing substantial amounts of snow to the area. One storm in January of 2016 brought 30 inches of snow in less than 48 hours to Big Big Bear Lake. While that may sound positive for those hoping for a considerable amount of snow this year, that may be misleading. In the 2015/2016 snow year, according to Bear Mountain in Big Bear Lake, the resorts received a total of only 99 inches of snow. That is considerably low compared to last year, 2022/2023, where the resorts in Big Bear Lake received a significant amount of snow, reporting 243 inches for the year.

Will Big Bear Lake Receive a Significant Amount of Snow in 2023?

As El Niño takes center stage in the winter drama, the potential impact on snowfall in Big Bear Lake remains a captivating mystery. While the NOAA's forecast hints at increased precipitation, the enigmatic nature of temperature and atmospheric dynamics adds complexity to the snowfall forecast. Be sure to check back for the latest snow fall reports in Big Bear Lake.

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